How does Edges measure pick performance?

Every published pick is logged with the price taken, stake (flat R100), and outcome. Running stats: hit-rate, flat-stake ROI, and per-confidence-band calibration (does an 80%-confidence pick actually win 80% of the time?). Numbers update as matches resolve. No hidden picks, no quiet edits.

What is calibration and why does it matter?

Calibration measures whether a tipster's stated confidence matches reality. If the desk says a pick is 70% confident, well-calibrated picks should win ~70% of the time over the long run. A consistently over-confident desk is bleeding ROI. Edges publishes the calibration table per band so you can see whether the confidence numbers are honest.

credibility, in the open

Track record.

Every pick the Edges desk publishes lands here, wins, losses, voids. Numbers update as matches finish. Flat-stake R100 per pick. No hidden picks, no quiet edits, no "we said it would be tight".

Every desk pick, with running ROI. Flat-stake R100. No hidden picks.

since 11 June

18picks
11Wwins
6Llosses
1Vvoid
64.7%hit-rate
+8.4%flat-stake ROI

last 18 picks

Streak.

on a 2 win streak

12W 5L last 18

calibration

Are the desk’s confidence numbers honest?

Within each confidence band, the bar shows the actual win-rate vs the expected win-rate. Well-calibrated picks have actual ≈ expected.

50–59

54%

56.2%

+2.2

60–69

64.5%

60.8%

-3.7

70–79

74.1%

75.5%

+1.4

80+

84.2%

80.1%

-4.1